Twitter Predictor Game Stats

More than 20,000 people have played Hunch’s Twitter Predictor Game since we released it last Friday.

Some quick stats:

• The median number of questions answered is 35 and the mean is about 50 (a hardcore group of users answering hundreds of questions is what raises the mean above the median)
• Hunch’s average correct score is about 85%; this remains nearly the same (within about 1%) no matter how many questions someone has answered beyond a minimum threshold of 10
• Interestingly, there are some discontinuity points in the curve below based on some key numbers of questions answered: at 35, many people stop or tweet, at 75, there’s a sprint to 100, and after 100, a hardcore set of users answers several hundred more questions (they are clearly in the zone)

In terms of the accuracy of Hunch’s predictions:

• Among users who answered 35 questions, average accuracy was 85%
• Hunch’s accuracy exceeded 90% for 58% of those users
• Hunch got a perfect 100% for 9% of those users

Questions which tend to stump Hunch

The following are some of the questions which most often stumped Hunch.  We’ve shown below the common incorrect answers which Hunch guessed.  The correct answer was something else.

Have you ever used a Polariod Camera? ->  No
When a stranger has asked you for directions, have you ever told them a complete lie, just for a laugh?  ->  Yessir
Have you ever been to an art gallery? ->  No
Did you vote in your country’s last major election for president or prime minister? ->   No
Do you daydream? -> No

Nothing up our sleeve…

There’s been a lot of speculation about how, exactly, the Twitter Predictor works.  We won’t give everything away or go into a lot of detail, other than to play a little true/false for a minute:

• The game simply chooses the most popular answer which everyone is bound to pick (FALSE)
• The game analyzes the content of your Tweets to learn about you (FALSE)
• The game is simply an implementation of “Cold Reading” (FALSE)
• The game analyzes your Twitter name or info in your Twitter profile to infer information about you (FALSE)
• The game leverages Hunch’s growing “taste graph” to predict what you might like based on who you follow and who follows you (TRUE)

Hope you’ve enjoyed the game.  You can play it here if you haven’t already, or try our new Twitter Follower game as well.